Demography and Mortality

Course content

  • Demographic modeling
  • Mortality models and forecasting
  • Risk factors
  • Cause specific mortality
  • Quantification of premature mortality

MSc Programme in Statistics

Learning outcome


  • Basic demographic concepts.
  • Danish and other demographic data sources.
  • The Lee-Carter and other similar models for mortality forecasting.
  • Regression models for prediction of (cause specific or small area) mortality rates.


Skills: The ability to 

  • Implement (simple) models for longevity and demographics in R based on publicly available data sources.
  • Implement (simple) regression models for mortality rates in R.



  • Justify the use of different models in different contexts.
  • Simulating, analyzing, and comparing different mortality models.

4 hours of lectures and 3 hours of exercises per week for 7 weeks.

The course literature will primarily consist of research papers, which will be made available on Absalon.


Mathematical statistics and probability based on measure theory, such as Mathematical Statistics and Regression or equivalent.

Academic qualifications equivalent to a BSc degree in mathematics, mathematics-economy or actuarial science is recommended.

This course will be co-taught for the first four weeks with Pension Systems.


Students receive feedback at the exercise sessions.

7,5 ECTS
Type of assessment
Written assignment, 3 days
All aids allowed
Marking scale
7-point grading scale
Censorship form
No external censorship
Several internal examiners
Criteria for exam assessment

The student must in a satisfactory way demonstrate that he/she has mastered the learning outcome of the course.

Single subject courses (day)

  • Category
  • Hours
  • Lectures
  • 28
  • Preparation
  • 97
  • Theory exercises
  • 21
  • Project work
  • 30
  • Exam
  • 30
  • English
  • 206