Seminar: Applied Structural VAR Analysis (F)

Course content

The objective of the seminar is for students to work on independent research projects using VAR models. Students choose their topic in consultation with the seminar organizer, prepare and submit a first outline of the project, prepare and submit a first draft of the complete paper, present own paper and provide critical evaluation and feedback to other student’s paper, and hand-in a revised and final version of the seminar paper for assessment.

The following list provides possible topics but students are free to choose other topics as well.

  • Are supply or demand shocks driving business cycles?
  • What are the effects of monetary policy?
  • How do oil price shocks propagate throughout the economy?
  • Forecasting oil prices using VAR models.
  • Modeling the real price of oil.
  • How important is uncertainty and risk for changes in asset prices?
  • Are international stock markets connected?
  • Are fundamental based exchange rate models useful for forecasting?
  • Testing PPP and UIP.
  • Sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates.
  • Is there a causal relation between financial development and economic growth in developing countries and/or emerging markets?
  • What are the determinants of capital flows to developing countries?
  • How reliable are long-run restrictions in structural VAR models?
  • Bootstrap or not bootstrap confidence bands in stable VAR models?
  • Evaluating Lütkepohl’s approach to test for Granger non-causality in higher dimensional VAR models.
Education

MSc programme in Economics

The course is a part of the financial line, signified by (F)

 

The seminar is primarily for students at the MSc of Economics.

Learning outcome

After completing the seminar, the student is expected to be able to fulfil the learning outcome specified in the Master curriculum and to be able to:

Knowledge:

  • Define relevant research purpose and structure a seminar paper.
  • Account for key economic theories/approaches relevant for the seminar paper.
  • Account for alternative theories/approaches relevant for the seminar paper.
  • Reflect and criticize existing theories/empirical work on the chosen topic.

 

Skills:

  • Assess previous literature and chose, with a motivation, an approach to be used in the seminar paper.
  • Analyze the chosen topic using reduced form and/or structural vector autoregressive analysis.
  • Analyze own results and evaluate those results given the existing literature on the topic.
  • Communicate own results in a scientific and professional manner.
  • Present own work and discuss other seminar papers in a scientific and professional manner.

 

Competences:

  • Plan a research project.
  • Implement VAR analysis used in the literature.
  • Initiate, be responsible for and carry out an independent economic analysis based on VAR models.
  • Initiate collaborations.

At the seminar the student is trained independently to
- identify and clarify a problem,
- seek and select relevant literatur,
- write a academic paper,
- present and discuss own paper with the other students at the seminar.

The aim of the presentations is, that the student uses the presentation as an opportunity to practice oral skills and to receive feedback. The presentations is not a part of the exam and will not be assessed.

Mandatory activities in the seminar:
- Kick-off meeting
- Finding literatur and defining the project
- Writing process of the seminar paper
- Presentation of own project and paper
- Giving constructive feedback to another student´s paper
- Actively participating in discussions at the presentations and other meetings.

There is no weekly teaching/lecturing and the student cannot expect guidance from the teacher. If the teacher gives a few introduction lectures or gives the opportunity for guidance, this as well as other expectations are clarified at the kickoff meeting.

Process:
It is strongly recommended that you think about and search for a topic before the semester begins, as there is only a few weeks from the kick-off meeting to the submission of the project description/ agreement paper.

The seminar project paper must be uploaded in Absalon before the presentations, as the opponents and the other seminar participants have to read and comment on the paper. It is important that you upload a paper that is so finalized as possible due to the fact that the value of feedback and comments at the presentation is strongly associated with the skill level of the seminar paper.

After the presentations, you can with a few corrections improve the seminar paper by including the feedback and comments emerged during the presentations. It is NOT intended that you rewrite or begin the writing of the full project AFTER the presentation has taken place.

Students must find relevant literature themselves but will get some initial papers to start with depending on the topic. Main background literature:

  • Juselius, K. (2009), The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications, Oxford University Press.
  • Kilian, L. and H. Lütkepohl (2017), Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis, Cambridge University Press.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005), New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Springer.

 

Articles published in journals such as American Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Development Economics, Energy Economics are useful when finding topics and background material.

It is recommended that the student has followed the MSc course “Advanced Macroeconomics: Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis” or has knowledge similar to the curriculum.

BSc in Economics or similar

Schedule Spring 2022:

- Kick-off meeting: February 8, 15:15-17:00

- Extra meetings / introductory teaching / guidance: February 24, 15:15-17:00

- Deadline for submission of commitment paper / project description: No later than 1 March.

- Deadline for uploading a seminar assignment paper in Absalon: No later than one week before the presentations.

- Presentations: In the time period 1 – 23 May. Agreed on at the Kick-off meeting.

- Exam date: 1 June at 10.00 (am) - latest uploading of Seminar paper to the Digital Exam portal for assessment.


All information regarding the seminar is communicated through Absalon including venue. So it is very important that you by yourself logon to Absalon and read the information already when you are registered at the seminar.

Oral
Individual
Collective
Continuous feedback during the course of the semester
Peer feedback (Students give each other feedback)
ECTS
7,5 ECTS
Type of assessment
Written examination
A seminar paper in English that meets the formal requirements for written papers stated in the curriculum of the Master programme and at KUNet for seminars.

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Aid
All aids allowed

for the project paper.

The teacher defines the aids that must be used for the presentations.

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Marking scale
7-point grading scale
Censorship form
External censorship
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Criteria for exam assessment

Students are assessed on the extent to which they master the learning outcome for the seminar and can make use of the knowledge, skills and competencies listed in the learning outcomes in the Curriculum of the Master programme.

 

To receive the top grade, the student must with no or only a few minor weaknesses be able to demonstrate an excellent performance displaying a high level of command of all aspects of the relevant material.

  • Category
  • Hours
  • Project work
  • 186
  • Seminar
  • 20
  • English
  • 206