Seminar: Advanced Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rates (F)

Course content

The objective of the seminar is for students to work on independent research projects related to exchange rates. Students choose their topic in consultation with the seminar organizer, prepare and submit a first outline of the project, prepare and submit a first draft of the complete paper, present own paper and provide critical evaluation and feedback to other student’s paper, and hand-in a revised and final version of the seminar paper for assessment.

The following list provide possible topics but students are free to choose other topics as well

  • Are exchange rate models useful for forecasting?
  • Are fundamental based exchange rate models useful?
  • Is it profitable to use carry trade strategies?
  • Bid-ask spreads and uncertainty
  • Exchange rates and monetary policy uncertainty
  • Deviations from CIP
  • FX liquidity, measurements and determinants
  • Google Search Volume Index measures and exchange rates
  • Danish central bank interventions
  • Explaining the forward premium puzzle, the role of liquidity and deviations from PPP
  • Are FX and stock returns related?
  • Are there arbitrage opportunities on the FX market?
  • The information content of order flows
  • The sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates

MSc programme in Economics

The course is a part of the financial line, signified by (F)


The seminar is primarily for students at the MSc of Economics.

Learning outcome

After completing the seminar the student is expected to be able to fulfill the learning outcome specified in the Master curriculum and to be able to:


  • Account for key theories and methods relevant for the chosen topic.
  • Discuss and criticize the literature related to the topic.
  • Account for problems and applications that motivate the topic.
  • Critically reflect on different methods and approaches for modeling exchange rates.


  • Understand a new topic and identify key questions within that topic.
  • Choose and assess relevant journal articles within the topic.
  • Critically evaluate theories and empirical methods used in the relevant literature.
  • Present and discuss research ideas and results within the topic.
  • Communicate implications that the results might have for policy making and exchange rate management.



  • Plan and carry out an independent research project focusing on exchange rates.
  • Give constructive feedback on others’ research projects.

At the seminar the student is trained independently to
- identify and clarify a problem,
- seek and select relevant literatur,
- write a academic paper,
- present and discuss own paper with the other students at the seminar.

Mandatory activities in the seminar:
- Kick-off meeting
- Finding literatur and defining the project
- Writing process of the seminar paper
- Presentation of own project and paper
- Giving constructive feedback to another student´s paper
- Actively participating in discussions at the presentations and other meetings.

The aim of the presentations is, that you use the presentation as an opportunity to practice oral skills and to receive feedback at the paper. The presentations are not a part of the exam and will not be assessed.

The seminar project paper must be uploaded in Absalon before the presentations, as the opponents and the other seminar participants have to read and comment on the paper. It is important that you upload a paper that is so finalized as possible due to the fact that the value of feedback and comments at the presentation is strongly associated with the skill level of the seminar paper.
The teacher defines what materials may be used for the presentations.

After the presentations, you can with a few corrections improve the seminar paper by including the feedback and comments emerged during the presentations. It is NOT intended that you rewrite or begin the writing of the seminar paper after the presentation has taken place.

In case of a pandemic like Corona the teaching in this course may be changed to be taught either fully or partly online. For further information, see the course room on Absalon.

Students are expected to find relevant literature for their chosen topic. The level of the curriculum is:

  • Lucio Sarno and Mark P. Taylor, (2002), The Economics of Exchange Rates, Cambridge University Press
  • Keith Pilbeam (2013), International Finance, Palgrave Macmillan both used as core curriculum in the MSc course “Economics of Exchange Rates”.
  • Another useful textbook is Martin D.D. Evans (2011), Exchange-Rate Dynamics, Princeton University Press.
  • Articles published in journals such as Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance are useful when finding topics and background material.

It is recommended that the student has followed the MSc course “Economics of
Exchange Rates” or has knowledge similar to the curriculum. It is an advantage, if the student has followed any econometrics course at the MSc level, for example “Advanced Macroeconomics: Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis” or “Financial
Econometrics” if the chosen topic is empirically oriented.

BSc in Economics or similar

Schedule Fall 2021:

• Kick-off meeting:
7 September at 15:15-17:00

• Deadline for submission of commitment paper / project description:
1 October at 10:00am.

• Deadline for uploading a seminar assignment paper in Absalon:
No later than one week before the presentations.

• Presentations: In the time period 1 – 21 November:
Agreed on at the Kick-off meeting.

• Exam date:
1 December at 10.00 (am) - latest uploading of Seminar paper to the Digital Exam portal for assessment.

All information regarding the seminar is communicated through Absalon including venue. So it is very important that you by yourself logon to Absalon and read the information already when you are registered at the seminar.

Continuous feedback during the course of the semester
Peer feedback (Students give each other feedback)
7,5 ECTS
Type of assessment
Written examination
A seminar paper in English that meets the formal requirements for written papers stated in the curriculum of the Master programme and at KUNet for seminars.
All aids allowed

for the project paper.


Marking scale
7-point grading scale
Censorship form
External censorship
Criteria for exam assessment

Students are assessed on the extent to which they master the learning outcome for the seminar and can make use of the knowledge, skills and competencies listed in the learning outcomes in the Curriculum of the Master programme.


To receive the top grade, the student must with no or only a few minor weaknesses be able to demonstrate an excellent performance displaying a high level of command of all aspects of the relevant material.

  • Category
  • Hours
  • Project work
  • 186
  • Seminar
  • 20
  • English
  • 206